(a)
Identify a
relevant time series for the total number of new vehicles sold in
Australia (for at least the last 10 years) which may be useful in generating
the forecasts required by the insurance company. Justify your choice of time series.
(Data should be available on
relevant Australian government websites such as the Reserve Bank (RBA) or
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). It may also be available on relevant governmental
department websites or through relevant trade organisations and/or commercial data/research
agencies)
(i)
Provide a line
chart of the relevant time series for approximately the last 10 years.
(ii)
Comment in
general on the characteristics of the time series line chart. What systematic
components are evident in the time series?
(iii)
Outline the economic
and environmental factors or circumstances which are likely to have influenced
the characteristics or components of the time series identified in (ii)? Will
these factors or circumstances apply to the relevant forecasting period?
(b) Apply an
appropriate method to smoothe (remove
randomness) from the time series chosen in (a) to help further identify the relevant
systematic components.
(i)
From the results
of the above smoothing, provide a time series line chart comparing the original
time series with the generated smoothed values.
(ii)
Does the line
chart generated in (b (i)) suggest any re-evaluation or modification (if at
all) to your answer to (a.(ii))? Explain.
(iii)
Using the results
of the smoothing method you applied, provide numerical estimates for the
underlying systematic components (for
example, if a trend is observed provide a relevant trend equation and/or if
seasonality is observed provide estimates of the seasonal relatives or indexes).
(c) Provide at least one appropriate time series model for the time series you selected in (a) and provide relevant monthly forecasts for total new vehicle sales in Australia for April -18 to Mar-19. Justify your choice of model.
Students succeed in their courses by connecting and communicating with an expert until they receive help on their questions
Consult our trusted tutors.