PROBLEM 7: Simulation

Refer to the Imagination Toy Corporation marketing problem from Case 15.3. It was shown that the minimal project duration was 36 days. Now, suppose that each task is randomly distributed according to a Triangular (a,b,c) distribution, where a, b, and c refer to the bestcase, most-likely, and worst-case times, respectively:

Question 1:

Set up a single simulation replication by generating a random completion time for each activity and conducting the forward and backward pass calculations. You should provide the EST, EFT, LST, LFT, and Slack for each activity and show the commands used.

Question 2:

Generate 1,000 replications for all activities with non-zero slack times using the TABLE command in order to simulate the project’s completion time. Provide the following statistics for the completion time: average, standard deviation, minimum, and maximum. What is the probability that the completion time exceeds 36 days? Indicate clearly all of the commands used in Excel.