(a-1) Select an Excel line graph of the following bond yield data.
Yield A Yield B Yield C
(a-2) Describe the pattern. Is there a consistent trend?
(b) Perform exponential smoothing with a = 20. Use both methods A and B to Initialize the forecast. Record the statistics of fit. (Round the Mean squared error to 3 decimal places, percent values to 1 decimal place and Forecast to 2 decimal places.)
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percent error
Forecast for period 53
(c) Do the smoothing again with a = 10 and then with a = 30, recording the statistics of fit. (Round the Mean squared error to 3 decimal places and percent values to 1 decimal place.)
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percent error
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Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is the average of the absolute values or error (error is the difference between forecasted and actual value). It is used for calculation of demand/sales variability. the formula for MAD is given by:
Mean Square error (MSE) is the average of squared to error values (error is the difference between forecasted and actual demand value). it is used for the calculation of demand/sale variability. The formula for MSE is given by:
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the average of error divided by actual. It is also used for the calculation of demand/sale variability. The formula for MAPE is given by:
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