Task 4 Heatwaves, precipitation and road traffic accidents

The connection between weather and the road traffic accidents is widely reported. In this task, you will try to measure the heatwave and assess its impact on the road accident statistics.

Task 4.1: Measuring heatwave

John Nairn and Robert Fawcett from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have proposed a measure for the heatwave, called the excess heat factor (EHF). Read the following article to understand the definition of the EHF.

https://dx.doi.org/10.3390%2Fijerph120100227

Use the NOAA data to calculate the daily EHF values for the area you chose during the relevant time period. Plot the daily EHF values.

Task 4.2: Models with EHF

Use the EHF as an additional predictor to augment the model(s) that you fitted before. Report the estimated effect of the EHF on the road accident numbers.

Does the extra predictor improve the model fit?

What conclusions can you draw?

Task 4.3: Research question - extra weather features

Is EHF a good predictor for road traffic accidents? Can you think of extra weather features that may be more predictive of road traffic accident numbers?

Try incorporating your feature into the model and see if it improves the model fit. Use AIC to prove your point.