Background:

Torrens Consulting Company is a privately owned, independent, wholly Australian operated leading specialised consultancy, providing a full range of management consulting services specialising in Human Resource Management, Executive Recruitment, Organisational Development, Organisational Psychology and Training and Development Services.

They are looking at changing their current consulting decision-making system to a new technology and would like to call it consulting business intelligence system. They are deciding whether to develop the system in-house or outsource the development.

Students need to create a cost-benefit analysis of the proposed new system using the spreadsheet.

Cost-Benefit Analysis Overview:

Conducting a Cost-Benefit Analysis

While it is important to provide decision-makers with a range of options, the process of developing and analysing these can be expensive and time consuming. For major investments, it may be necessary to outline various potential options and then to have decision-makers select, after a preliminary screening, a smaller number for detailed appraisal. In any case, an appropriate level of consultation should be undertaken as best practice, either formally or informally, in creating a set of alternatives.

Step 3: Sensitivity analysis and dealing with uncertainty

The values of future costs and benefits on which the NPV is based are forecasts that cannot be known with certainty. While they should be forecast expected values, it is important to test the NPV for ‘optimistic’ and ‘pessimistic’ scenarios. This is achieved by changing the values of key variables in the analysis, such as the discount rate, costs and benefits, and measuring the impact of the changes on the NPV. This is known as sensitivity analysis and is a critical component of any CBA.

Where the NPV is shown to be very sensitive to changes in a variable, the analyst should check on the appropriateness and impact of this variable, and whether any changes to the design of the programme or underlying assumptions are warranted.

Uncertainties, or situations with unknown probabilities, that could have a significant impact on the project outcome should be clearly detailed in the report and, if necessary, monitored during implementation. When dealing with uncertain data, the expected value should be used. The expected value is the weighted sum of the likely outcomes (each outcome having its own probability of occurring). In order to attempt to quantify the likely impact, a probability may be assigned to a particular variable where dealing with uncertain data. These probabilities are then used as weightings in order to derive an expected value.

For example, assume a proposal that has two possible outcomes. The probability of producing an NPV of $5 million is 60% and the probability of producing an NPV of $3 million is 40%. We can now work out the expected NPV (ENPV) as follows:

ENPV = (0.6 x $5m) + (0.4 x $3m) = $4.2m

The expected NPV in this situation is $4.2 million. However, such a single value may not fully convey the uncertainty associated with forecasting the outcome. Hence, it is generally appropriate to present the results as a range that includes the most likely results, as well as results in possible best and worst case scenarios.