Tully Tyres sells cheap imported tyres. The manager believes its profits are in decline
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Tully Tyres sells cheap imported tyres. The manager believes its profits are in decline

QUESTION 3 Monte Carlo Simulation

Tully Tyres sells cheap imported tyres. The manager believes its profits are in decline. You have just been hired as an analyst by the manager of Tully Tyres to investigate the expected profit over the next 12 months based on current data.
•Monthly demand varies from 100 to 200 tyres – probabilities shown in the partial section of the spreadsheet below, but you have to insert formulas to ge the cumulative probability distribution which can be used in Excel with the VLOOKUP command.
•The average selling price per tyre follows a discrete uniform distribution ranging from $160 to $180 each. This means that it can take on equally likely integer values between $160 and $180 – more on this below.
•The average profit margin per tyre after covering variable costs follows a continuous uniform distribution between 20% and 30% of the selling price.
•Fixed costs per month are $2000.
(a)Using Excel set up a model to simulate the next 12 months to determine the expected average monthly profit for the year. You need to have loaded the Analysis Toolpak Add-In to your version of Excel. You must keep the data separate from the model. The model should show only formulas, no numbers whatsoever except for the month number.
You can use this partial template to guide you:
Ajax Tyres
Ajax Tyres              
               
DATA              
Prob Cum prob Demand   Selling Price $160 $180
0.05   100   Monthly Fixed cost $2,000  
0.1   120   Profit Margin 20% 30%
0.2   140          
0.3   160          
0.25   180          
0.1   200          
1              
               
MODEL              
      Selling   Profit Fixed  
Month RN1 Demand Price RN2 Margin Costs Profit
1 0.23297 #N/A $180 0.22763 0.2    
Hint
Cumulative distribution function- measures the increased probability for a variable x (tyres) F(x) = P(X ≤ x). Discrete uniform distribution means the number of values is limited with every n value having equal probability. Continuous uniform distribution- probability is constant. ...

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