Your soft drink brand manager has recently looked at the aggregate purchasing data in two periods
Question 2
Suppose you are the market analyst of a soft drink company. Your soft drink brand manager has recently looked at the aggregate purchasing data in two periods and found that there is a decline in the sales to the heavy buyer group, from 384 units to 308 units (about 20% decline). She is concerned about this as she thinks that if sales to the heavy buyers keep falling, eventually total sales will also fall since, as she argues, the heavy buyers are those who contribute most to sales.
As the market analyst you know that there is always some natural variation from period to period in purchases. Apply the conditional trend analysis to the full data set (data for question 2). Present your findings to the brand manager. Advise her if her concerns are supported by your analysis. Discuss the managerial implications of your findings.
Management "CTA or Conditional Trend Analysis was introduced by Goodhardt and Ehrenberg in 1967, as an extension to the negative binomial distribution. It predicts the purchase rate of consumers in a subsequent period, based on their current periodpurchase class i.e. zero buyers, bought once, twice and so forth and these predictions allow companies who use panel data to benchmark and track bu...
"CTA or Conditional Trend Analysis was introduced by Goodhardt and Ehrenberg in 1967, as an extension to the negative binomial distribution. It predicts the purchase rate of consumers in a subsequent period, based on their current period
purchase class i.e. zero buyers, bought once, twice and so forth and these predictions allow companies who use panel data to benchmark and track buying behaviour over time. That is, it basically enables analysts to examine different classes of buyers like light versus heavy buyers, or those who do not buy, buy one, two, three, and so forth in a period. It also predicts how likely these classes of buyers are to purchase in a subsequent period. CTA also extends the negative binomial distribution (NBD) by determining how consumer purchase patterns may differ between the periods."
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