Part 3

Your manager has asked you to forecast the hotel café sales for each quarter of 2022.  He has provided you with the following historical data, and is asking you to use moving averages to forecast, and for you to provide a range of forecasts. The trend values have already been calculated for you.

1. Clearly explain to your manager your model choice (you should include a copy of your annotated graph to show this?) 

2. Paste in a copy of your average seasonal variation (ASV) calculations with an explanation of the meaning of the final values, using terms that your manager would understand.

3. Paste in a copy of your graph showing the fully annotated projected trend lines

4. Put your final forecasts into a suitably headed table – showing the forecasted values ONLY.  Briefly explain to your manager why there are three forecasts and what they mean to the business.

5. Discuss 3 random factors that could affect your forecasts – your discussion must relate to the data subject.