Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions
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Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions

58. The file P12_58.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions.

a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holt’s method with optimized smoothing constants.

b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.

Hint
Statisticstd {border: 1px solid #cccccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}a) Exponential Trend: To fit an exponential trend to the given data, we can use the LINEST function in Excel. We will create a new column for time periods and use it as the independent variable (x) and the consumer revolving credit as the dependent variable (y). The exponential trend equation will be of the form y = a * ex...

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